My Coin Roll Hunting Theory

[SilverForBrains]

It seems to me that the kennedy silver rush is dying quickly. I have only been on this forum for the last few months, so I may be wrong about this. Anyways, my theory is that there are waves of intense CRH, in which most silver is quickly stripped out of circulation. A lull follows, since people don't consider it worth the effort to hunt anymore. Cashing in of silver would still occur at a reasonably steady rate, as people die and their relatives turn it in, people get their collections stolen, etc. Eventually the stock of silver in circulation is up again, and CRH commences.

the first wave of people would've been like my dad pulling out silver in the sixties. When it stopped being so plentiful, they stopped (although that's relative, I bet their worst box would've been our best). My dad was very surprised that I still find silver in circulation. I don't know how many waves there have been, but I'm guessing with each additional "wave" the amount of silver per box is decreasing, but the price of silver keeps increasing so it's still worth it.

Things really seem to have dried up on this forum, fast, which leads me to believe the rushes don't last long and the restocking of silver may take a few years. I would love to have some input from people who have been doing this for longer! I could be wayyyy off, just my theory!

I love this hobby regardless. If there is very little silver in circulation, onto pennies!

What doesn't make sense with this theory is that there seem to be no silver quarters. I can't explain this other than to imagine there are a few quarter obsessed individuals who manage to keep it all out of circulation

 

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[The_EE]

Well, I have been into this 6 months and I still enjoy unwrapping a roll and finding silver. Some weeks its crappy, some weeks its good but it seems to average out for me in the end. I will be doing this for a long haul, its the cheapest way for me to stack.

As for quarters, its the most circulated coin and the largest we use on a regular basis, its easier to spot the silver ones. No on pays attention to the dimes.

 

[penman77]

OP, I think you are correct. The only question is how much lower each "crest" is going to be. The game may be over in 10 years or even less. I used to collect, repair and deal in fountain pens. Twenty years ago fabulous pens from the 20's through the 50's would regularly show up in antique malls "from the wild". Ten years later it was pretty much over. My theory was that most of the people who had stuck them in a drawer had left us. The same thing will be true with 90% coins. The people who saved them will die. The heirs will trade them for FRN's.

The other point will be interesting to see. At what point do people say "It isn't worth it"? I search 6 boxes per week. I could do more but I don't want to. Six skunk boxes is the most likely outcome. Eight or ten would not be more fun. I keep doing this because it is almost effortless. I am driving by my supply bank and my dump bank every day anyway. I have pulled one 90% and 7 40% out of my last 36 boxes. I would not be willing to do a lot of driving and dumping for those returns. I am not as hooked on this as many seem to be.

 

[n8dagr8345]

Yup- not much silver left out there- Not much point in getting in the hobby at this point.
N8

 

[fistfulladirt]

I wasn't finding much back in 1979-80, wasn't finding much 3 years ago, not finding much now. But, I keep on keepin on.

 

[quiksilver]

when the silver runs dry i will do more copper

 

[TimZim]

when people cash in silver we find it. Thats it!! It does add up.

 

[onfire]

I look at this way say you have 3 g's sitting in the bank leaving it there will get you 50cents interest per month using this amount buying and dumping and finding just 1 90% per month beats the system.

 

[Gilmore Happy]

What's your time worth?
If it's alot, just buy silver bullion
If youre in college, retired, brokeass, CRH
Like treasure hunting, CRH
Need another hobby to stay out of trouble, CRH
When you break down the time it takes to score silver through CRH, the kid at McDonalds makes more than you...in a year

 

[Bigheed]

When you break down the time it takes to score silver through CRH, the kid at McDonalds makes more than you...in a year

not true for everyone.
It depends on your luck, location, and persistence. I make ~$40 per hour CRHing in "theory" because I hoard it all, save a little I sold last year to pacify the wife. But hey, it sure increases the value of time spent watching the boob tube.

as for the OP's theory, it's probably pretty accurate, with each generation less and less silver will return to the "wild" as its getting melted down now.

 

[fistfulladirt]

"Less and less silver will return to the wild as it's getting melted down now."

I sure wish someone could come up with some hard numbers proving that US silver coin is going to the smelter. I honestly don't believe that much is. It's only trading hands. Over and over. Opinions?

 

[SilverForBrains]

All I know is that when I brought a roll of silver quarters into a pawn shop, not only did they low ball me incredibly bad (I wasn't planning on selling it anyway, just curious what they would offer), they told me that they only pay melt value because that's exactly what they do - melt it down. This was confirmed by other pawn shops that I went to. There is definitely a lot of silver coins being melted by pawn shops and probably also all the gold and silver stores. I would imagine more goes to these places than to coin shops/collectors.

 

[SilverForBrains]

when people cash in silver we find it. Thats it!! It does add up.

well said

 

[frankendime]

As for myself and my meager silver finds, I hate to think that history is going into a melting pot. War nickels for example, that was a historic times not to be forgotten, and those are tokens of that time and era, and we are gonna melt em for a paltry $2? I've got a buncha 5 cent cardboard coin holders and putting my silver in them and sell em as collectibles at above melt prices in my yard sales. I buy storage units at auction as well and have big yard sales. So maybe people will take em home and throw em in a drawer or their jewelry box, and someday someone will get to find them again. At least they are not destroyed.

 

[fistfulladirt]

Why would the pawn shops melt silver coin (even if it's not refined - energy costs), when they can make more money selling it in coin form?

 

[ParisRoubaix]

What's your time worth?
If it's alot, just buy silver bullion
If youre in college, retired, brokeass, CRH
Like treasure hunting, CRH
Need another hobby to stay out of trouble, CRH
When you break down the time it takes to score silver through CRH, the kid at McDonalds makes more than you...in a year

The kid at McD's may make more....But I have alot more fun than him flippin' burgers and swingin' milk shakes!
PR

 

[optix]

I value my time at least at ten bucks an hour. As long as I am getting that taking into account, pickup and drop-off time; I am happy.

 

[SilverForBrains]

Why would the pawn shops melt silver coin (even if it's not refined - energy costs), when they can make more money selling it in coin form?

Most of them don't have any numismatic experience, plus to them it's all about time. It's just faster for them to ship it off to be melted than to find individual buyers at the shop for coins or rolls of coins. I don't agree with it at all either, I think like most people they just don't understand the true value of silver coins.

In the eighties there was HUGE amounts of silver melting going on when silver hit $50 an ounce. It's happening again now. It's estimated only a quarter of originally minted silver coins still exist. Key dates need to be reconsidered since they are based off mintage quantities, not quantities that currently exist. This is a huge task though and not very reasonable.

 

[fistfulladirt]

Why would the pawn shops melt silver coin (even if it's not refined - energy costs), when they can make more money selling it in coin form?

Most of them don't have any numismatic experience, plus to them it's all about time. It's just faster for them to ship it off to be melted than to find individual buyers at the shop for coins or rolls of coins. I don't agree with it at all either, I think like most people they just don't understand the true value of silver coins.

In the eighties there was HUGE amounts of silver melting going on when silver hit $50 an ounce. It's happening again now. It's estimated only a quarter of originally minted silver coins still exist. Key dates need to be reconsidered since they are based off mintage quantities, not quantities that currently exist. This is a huge task though and not very reasonable.

SFB, in your previous post you mentioned that your pawn shop was melting the coin, maybe I misunderstood. Once again, I'd like to see a link or hard evidence that coin is being melted, otherwise it's just hearsay.

 

[JohnDroid]

I'm a newb and I'm about to go buy some at my local banks. I'll let you know how it turns out on my first batch.