Foreverman
Greenie
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
- Messages
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- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
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I like your idea Meg. Could you also use marked coins in your analysis?I searched 3 boxes of halves tonight and noticed a lot of these "ring around the collar" scratches on coins inside the rolls. We are searching through boxes of coins that have been machine wrapped many times. While going through them, I tried to think of how we could mathematically use the number of ring coins to estimate the population size that we are searching. I've done this with mark and recapture studies of fish, turtles and small mammals, but the situations are a bit different with these coins because the number of scratched coins will constantly increase as they are machine wrapped over and over. With animal studies, the marks or tags are typically done over a short period of time and then there is effort to sample the population. In the simplest sample designs, a population estimate can be calculated by direct proportion.
In any event, I think we can still use the scratched coins as a way to estimate when to quit. I'm thinking that when the % of scratched coins exceeds a certain point - which may vary by the CRH'er, but let's say 30 or 40%, then it could be time to quit. BTW, the 3 boxes were skunks. I'm up to 20 skunks of the last 21 boxes.
I like your idea Meg. Could you also use marked coins in your analysis?
When to quit CRH halves, that is a tough question. I picked up my usual 2 box order from one branch yesterday. They had an extra box but I declined it. In fact, I asked them to reduce my order to one box per week, which brings my overall weekly order down to 4 boxes. Tired of getting minimal silver and having to dump all those coins! Then, I got home and searched them. 1st box had 2 x 1964, 1 x 1967, 1 x 1974-D DDO, & 1 x 1987-D. 2nd box had 2 x 1974-D DDO. Not great, but okay results. Lots of skunks prior to them. Hoping things pick up a bit, it’s a long time until Christmas silver, lol.
Yes, TxAg, marked coins could be used - but most marks are sharpie type marks and could be washed off. I think the ring scratches are more permanent and useful. The biggest problem is that the object of interest is constantly being removed, so a population estimate would require making assumptions that are untested. I'm leaning more toward a matrix of factors - marks, ring scratches, and skunks in a weird way to remove emotion from the decision.
But, Just as you discovered, something changes with the boxes and all of a sudden, things look brighter. I've had one good box since a Brinks box with my Wender, so 20 skunk boxes out of 21. I decided to drive a bit further away today to pick up 3 boxes of Loomis haves. I just now finished the first 2 boxes and these are about the best boxes I've searched. First box had 30 silver, of which 3 were walkers, 3 Franklins, 4 1964, and 20 40%ers. Second box had 26 silvers, including 1 Walker, 2 Franklins, 7 1964, and 16 40%ers. I've still got a box to go and all I know is there is one ender (couldn't help it - had to look). So now I'm happy and considering reducing my Brinks boxes from 3 to 2 or 1 and continuing with the Loomis boxes, even though it means 65 miles round-trip rather than just 8. On the way home, there was a multiple car accident that included several wrecked police cars. I haven't seen so many wrecked police cars since watching "The Blues Brothers".