Odds

[ClonedSIM]

Fine, how many nuggets do you expect a normal person would find unaided?

I don't know AF...That is what I would like to know...Art

I have no doubt this is the answer you seek, but you have to have some idea of the type of answers you expect to receive.

And what's the point of this anyway? It's already been explained to you that your backyard does not mimic a natural environment where a hunter might go expecting to find gold. It's all going to be one big guessing game for anyone, except for you, of course.

 

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[dowser]

Art.. I couldn't find them!!

 

[aarthrj3811]

Thanks dowser….I agree with you….Art

 

[aarthrj3811]

Ok …We now have three that say they will find 0 and one that says 1. Maybe AF will tell us what the odds of random chance tells us? I would tell you but I don’t understand all that mumble jumble stuff. …Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

Ok …We now have three that say they will find 0 and one that says 1. Maybe AF will tell us what the odds of random chance tells us? I would tell you but I don’t understand all that mumble jumble stuff. …Art

Well, Art, you're right. You don't understand at all. You say mumble jumble (did you mean mumbo jumbo?) and most people say mathematics. Whatever you call it, you don't need people's guesses to determine odds, you need figures. Actual numbers, measurements. Just like I've been telling you for the past week.

 

[aarthrj3811]

Quote from: aarthrj3811 on Today at 02:52:54 PM

Ok …We now have three that say they will find 0 and one that says 1. Maybe AF will tell us what the odds of random chance tells us? I would tell you but I don’t understand all that mumble jumble stuff. …Art
Well, Art, you're right. You don't understand at all. You say mumble jumble (did you mean mumbo jumbo?) and most people say mathematics. Whatever you call it, you don't need people's guesses to determine odds, you need figures. Actual numbers, measurements. Just like I've been telling you for the past week.

Lets see now….What does the size of the yard have to with the price of tea in china. The yard is 50 feet by 20 foot. There is 10 gold nuggets buried in it. The people say they will find .25 of the nuggets. What else do you need?...Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

Quote from: aarthrj3811 on Today at 02:52:54 PM

Ok …We now have three that say they will find 0 and one that says 1. Maybe AF will tell us what the odds of random chance tells us? I would tell you but I don’t understand all that mumble jumble stuff. …Art
Well, Art, you're right. You don't understand at all. You say mumble jumble (did you mean mumbo jumbo?) and most people say mathematics. Whatever you call it, you don't need people's guesses to determine odds, you need figures. Actual numbers, measurements. Just like I've been telling you for the past week.

Lets see now….What does the size of the yard have to with the price of tea in china. The yard is 50 feet by 20 foot. There is 10 gold nuggets buried in it. The people say they will find .25 of the nuggets. What else do you need?...Art

Let's assume that an average nugget will fit into one square inch of soil, sound fair?

You haven't mentioned what size of hole is allowable so I'll make it easy on myself and assume the hole would be 1 inch in diameter as well. That means the searcher would pretty much have to be dead-on perfect with their dig.

1 square foot =144 square inches.

50 feet X 20 foot = 1000 square feet.

1000 square feet X 144 square inches per square foot gives you a total of 144,000 square inches in your yard.

If we were talking about a single nugget and a single guess as to it's location, your odds would be 1-in-144,000 to get it exactly right and dig up that one nugget.

Since we're talking about 10 nuggets, divide the total search area by 10 as well, giving odds of finding any one of the ten nuggets as 1-in-14,400.

Again, since you didn't state any differently, this is assuming one guess per nugget.

In other words, if you crowded 144,000 people into your yard, and each dug a 1 inch diameter hole, 10 of them would come up with a nugget, and your yard would be trashed.

 

[joecoin]

Are tennis balls considered tools?

 

[ClonedSIM]

Are tennis balls considered tools?

Only if you try to dowse with them....

 

[aarthrj3811]

OK …The odds are about 1 in 14,000. I am confused about Random Chance odds and the odds of Probability. Could you please give us those facts using the same scenario? ….Art

 

[dowser]

I think af lost one of his juggling balls, and wants us to help him find it..

 

[aarthrj3811]

Hey dowser…..He has never answered this question before. It will be interesting if he even answers it now….Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

Hey dowser…..He has never answered this question before. It will be interesting if he even answers it now….Art

I assume you're speaking to me, and I've always answered your questions. It's my questions that you don't answer. Refer to post #2 for an example of this.

Probability is the likelihood or chance that something is the case or will happen.

Odds: The ratio of the probability of an event's occurring to the probability of its not occurring.

As you can see both of these terms are closely related. Probability is expressed in the form of odds.

If you'll go back, you can see that you are the only one who uses these two terms at the same time. The rest of us understand that to use both of these terms in reference to the same event would be pointless.

Your yard still has the odds of 1-in-14,000 of finding a single gold nugget, no matter what you choose to believe.

 

[aarthrj3811]

Random Chance....After typing it a 1000 times you should have some idea of what it means...Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

Random Chance....After typing it a 1000 times you should have some idea of what it means...Art

I do understand what it means, Art.

Please respond to my last post, the one you've been crying for.

 

[aarthrj3811]

Probability is the likelihood or chance that something is the case or will happen. Probability theory is used extensively in areas such as statistics, mathematics, science and philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying mechanics of complex systems.

For the alternative rock band, see Odds (band).
In probability theory and statistics the odds in favour of an event or a proposition are the quantity p / (1 − p) , where p is the probability of the event or proposition. In other words, an event with m to n odds would have probability m/(m + n). For example, if you chose a random day of the week, then the odds that you would choose a Sunday would be 1/6, not 1/7. These 'odds' are actually relative probabilities. Generally, 'odds' are not quoted to the general public in this format because of the natural confusion with the chance of an event occurring being expressed fractionally as a probability. Thus, the probability of choosing Sunday at random from the days of the week is 'one-seventh' (1/7), and although a bookmaker may (for his own purposes) use 'odds' of 'one-sixth' the overwhelming everyday use by most people is odds of the form 6 to 1, 6-1, or 6/1 (all read as 'six-to-one') where the first figure represents the number of ways of failing to achieve the outcome and the second figure is the number of ways of achieving a favourable outcome.


So your teling us that when you say Random Chance you mean Probablity Theroy…Got it…Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

Whatever you say, Art.

Just respond to this post:

Your yard still has the odds of 1-in-14,000 of finding a single gold nugget, no matter what you choose to believe.

It's what you've been whining about for 2 weeks.

 

[aarthrj3811]

More than once you've been told that a gold-bearing area would give clues to a knowledgeable person on where best to look for that gold. This is where finding gold and guessing using visible clues have been compared.

So you are telling me that if I am searching an area 50 feet 20 feet in a gold-bearing area that my odds of locating a nugget is not the the same. Could you give the odds of locating a nugget in this place ?...Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

More than once you've been told that a gold-bearing area would give clues to a knowledgeable person on where best to look for that gold. This is where finding gold and guessing using visible clues have been compared.

So you are telling me that if I am searching an area 50 feet 20 feet in a gold-bearing area that my odds of locating a nugget is not the the same. Could you give the odds of locating a nugget in this place ?...Art

You can't compare these two areas.

Ever heard the phrase "apples and oranges?"

 

[aarthrj3811]

You can't compare these two areas.

Ever heard the phrase "apples and oranges?"

Thanlks AF....That tells me a lot...When in the field and you are searching an area 50 feet by 20 feet for gold nuggets you don't know if there is a single nugget within 10 miles of the location. So odds has nothing to do with your search....Art