Silver / CRH as GoLd???

[blacoint]

nm

 

[StevoCBR]

Sorry last post got screwed up. I'm still figuring out the reply thing I meant to say and not be in blue.

I certainly understand your points but think about this. How many people do we all know that are on both sides of the isle politically that are educated smart people that don't have a clue of what is going on. Sure the people that are broke, dependent on government and or others, agreed they will be in bad shape. But the people that actually care that are smart and understand more than your average bear, those people are going to wake up one day.. I know and am family with smart, successful, affluent people that think I'm crazy and have this --deleted-- blind faith that everything the government does is in all our best interest and that the government would never let a fiat currency collapse. Yet as we talk about this we here all know what really is going on and thus a big draw for us to this particular hobby and site.

But once real harsh inflation starts to hit hard. I believe that will jolt of lot of people into a oh my gosh moment that will begin to trigger these people to dig into the subject matter and take action. I mean I'm sure you have all read the headlines. India prefers silver to gold now and have and is the largest consumer of Gold in years past due to their religious traditions of giving gold and increasingly now silver. Or how China just legalized silver ownership for it's citizens. Those are 2 huge markets that will continue to grow.

Couple that with a looming cloud in the individual US states fiscal health and the fact that the cash coming in is slowed and municipality debts going unpaid in several cases..ie IL, and CA. There are a lot of cities and states that are in deep trouble and looks like headed for defaults on there municiple debt. We haven't seen anything yet of potentially what we face in the future. Once you start to really see the birth pains of what we have created in our "Clower and Piven" live outside of our means society. That's when the run will begin, when people start to wake up. Which by the way if there is a SINGLE reader that doesn't know who "Clower and Piven" are? Please Google and read about them.

And on the whole note of silver has gone up to fast. Read up on JP Morgan chase and silver manipulation. Silver should have been at $30 10 years ago. and should be $80-$90 right now just based on the gold to silver ratio that has been historically in place until we took our currency off the gold standard...

As I have told some friends that recently have got into PM and silver in particular. Your still early to the party.

Great debate none the less!

 

[jim4silver]

And on the whole note of silver has gone up to fast. Read up on JP Morgan chase and silver manipulation. Silver should have been at $30 10 years ago. and should be $80-$90 right now just based on the gold to silver ratio that has been historically in place until we took our currency off the gold standard...

There is a saying that "the market is always right". Even if we wish or believe it should be another way, you can't argue with what it is. Institutions and big speculators have been driving up the silver price the past few months, and they can pull the plug and take profits at the drop of a hat It happened in 2008 after silver hit 21 or so and everyone was singing "we are in the money" and the price eventually went to 9 bucks per ounce.

I have read many articles about gold and silver and as far as the manipulation argument, I have mixed feelings. The reason is because there are really two markets for silver, paper (ie futures) and physical. Although the futures does involve physical in the sense a long can ask for delivery, almost all contracts settle via cash. If there is manipulation it is in the paper market in my opinion (which yes can affect physical but not 100%).

My point is this, since I have been watching PM markets closely (for the past few years), the physical price of silver (what you pay at a coin dealer-local or online) and the futures price have been closely linked (with the premium on physical remaining fairly constant whether silver is 15 or 30 per ounce for generic bullion). If there was really a physical shortage, the industries and investors demanding the metal would drive the physical price up past the paper price because they would be so desperate for the metals and would need them no matter what the price (I mean this for the industrial users). I have never seen silver unavailable with its usual buck or so premium (or less) over spot (except for when it crashed in 2008) and that was because nobody was selling due to the low price. If there really was a shortage, there would be supply problems across the country. Private mints and refiners have always had plenty of silver bars/rounds for sale in the past few years, so if there was really a shortage, you would have seen it.

Further, I believe there is still much silver in the ground in that many mines shut down in the 90s and are just recently getting back to full swing. I think in the next 10-20 years silver will be in great demand due to its many industrial uses, but I don't think the supply will dry up UNLESS speculators, hedge funds, and other investors start buying up the physical in mass quantities, like some PM pundits have been encouraging on their websites, etc. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen, but it hasn't happened yet (since the Hunt bros).

It helps to read both bullish and bearish articles, etc, so you get a more thorough reading of what is out there. Usually the truth is somewhere in the middle and neither side is 100% right in my opinion.
Just when you are counting on the market doing one thing, it will almost always seem to do just the opposite.

Jim

 

[gotgot]

This is always interesting to me but i still feel like gold has to much room to drop compared to silver. I predicted silver would spike hard last year and it did. I dont see anything stopping it next year and it seems easier for it to go up higher percentage wise since it is so cheap. I was offered $100 a roll for my 40%s today and refused. That is how good i feel about silver right now.

Could you send them my way? Heck I'll sell them as much as they want at $95/roll, no questions asked...