To sell or wait?

[Dannycoco]

I called a coin shop today to ask what they were paying for silver half dollars. He tells me $8.50 for 90%ers and $3.25 for 40%ers. I can make a hefty profit at that amount but would be kicking myself if it spikes . What would you do?

 

Amazon Forum Fav 👍

How to Research for Treasure Hunting and Metal Detecting From Lead Generation to Vetting - Grab it through Amazon!

[smokeythecat]

Sell. Fast. Timing is everything. As the stock market rises, eventually, maybe sooner than later, metals will tank. Markets are driven by two things: Fear and greed.

I bought a stock last Wednesday morning upon listening carefully to news reports on the company and reading about the company's 10 year history.

I bought it at market open at 9:30 am. I sold it 25 minutes later and made $1200. If I would have waited a little longer I would have made a little more.

If I would waited until FRIDAY, I would have lost $1200.

 

[ArkieBassMan]

Tough call. I see absolutely no reason for the price of silver and gold to come down anytime soon. Trillions of dollars have been created out of thin air during the COVID era, and trillions more are going to be created in the very near future. Its an election year, and "free" money buys votes from the uneducated. That pretty much must lead to inflation somewhere down the road, and precious metals do well in times of inflation.

With that said, I'm one of the people that started CRHing over a decade ago when silver went from single digits all the way to nearly $50 an ounce. It was $11-$12/toz about the time I really got into it. At that time, I would have told you I'd ECSTATICALLY sell it all if I could get what at the time seemed a ridiculous $5 each for 40%ers. They were briefly paying $6 each and I never sold the first coin. Greed does weird things to people.

 

[Back-of-the-boat]

Set an amount that you would sell at and if it reaches that amount sell, but don't second guess when you should have sold.It may climb afterwards or it might drop but if you don't sell and then the bottom falls out you will be upset you didn't sell when you had the chance.Either way you do it wont be correct because we always want more you just need to be satisfied with the price you are happy to sell at and don't shoulda coulda woulda yourself.Personally I think it is going to keep climbing until the election so I set a date and not a price.

 

[gunsil]

I'll never forget " Black Monday" back in 1980 when the Hunt boys cornered the silver market and drove the price to $40.00. I had attended a big gun show at the Baltimore Armory (maybe Smokey was there too) with two friends. One had a sack of silver coins he had saved from when he was a kid delivering newspapers in 1965-66. The other made silver jewelry and had a home made bar of his scrap silver that was about 40 oz. There were guys there advertising they bought silver and the friend with the coins did very well, getting close to melt at $40 spot. my other friend made a deal for a small real cannon on a restored field carriage in trade for his silver bar. This was on a Saturday, Monday the price fell back to $5.00/oz. My friends got out at exactly the right time and were very happy. I am sure those who were buying were crying, and the poor guy with the cannon ended up with two hundred bucks for his $1600 cannon. I am waffling about selling the pile of old gold jewelry I have, but if all this craziness gets worse or collapses the economy I fear I may need the gold more then than I do the cash now.

 

[smokeythecat]

I didn't do the gun shows that far back except the one in Bel Air with my dad. My mom had bought some silver dollars for $2 each prior to the spike in price. She sold them at $28 right about that time. Within 2 weeks (from memory) the market tanked. It doesn't take long for the markets to bounce around like old "superballs" we had once upon a time ago.

 

[Mackaydon]

IMO, as long as the market believes Biden has a chance to win, precious metals will rise--out of fear of the unknown.
But if the market senses Trump will win, precious metals will decline and equities (stocks) will rise.
Don...

 

[FloodcityTom]

I've got some scrap silver and gold Im looking to sell, I'm hoping silver goes to $30 then I sale BUT, I will likely buy US Silver coins, .50c walking liberties in Fine or better condition.

 

[Dannycoco]

Thanks for the input everyone. I think I’ve made a decision. Hopefully it pans out.

 

[smokeythecat]

The reason stock brokers don't retire their first week on the job is they frankly don't hit the ball out of the park every time. Good luck.

 

[FreedomUIC]

I sold all silver when it broke $25.80, my sell price.
I sold all my gold when it cracked $2,000, my sell price.

I will not look back and wonder, I made a fair amount, it is somebody elses time to make some money.

 

[GMan00001]

IMO, as long as the market believes Biden has a chance to win, precious metals will rise--out of fear of the unknown.
But if the market senses Trump will win, precious metals will decline and equities (stocks) will rise.
Don...

I was going to say essentially the same thing.

 

[LooseChange]

Unless/until you need cash badly, you shouldn't trade your physical silver for dollars. There is a much better thing to do with physical silver - if you are patient.

You can build a larger and larger stack by trading between silver and gold. Hold your physical silver until the ratio of gold to sliver is less than 65 (currently around 73, recently in 120's). Once the ratio gets to the low 60's, trade all of your physical silver for physical gold. Then, then wait for the ratio to get above 80. When that happens, trade all of your physical gold for physical silver. For each trade, your stack of precious metal grows. It grows free of cost, free of risk, and free of taxes. It works.

 

[Avago]

I love the idea of trading the gold/silver ratio but there's something else to consider IMO when prices are this high in terms of dollars.

Sure, if the G/S gets to say 40:1, gold is relatively 'cheap' compared to silver and thus theoretically it makes sense that you should trade your silver for gold. But with prices this high you may be better off selling your stack and waiting for prices to go back down to buy back in. Yes, you will have to hold dollars for awhile which some may consider risky, but you might end up with more metal in the end if you're patient.

Take this example from April 2011: The G/S ratio bottomed out at around 32:1 with gold at around $1500 and silver peaking at around $48. If you had traded your 1,000oz of silver at that time you would have gotten 32 ounces of gold;

However, if you had sold your 1,000oz of silver for $48,000 and then waited until the gold/silver prices came back down you would have ended up with more metal:

November 2015 gold price: ~$1,150/oz = 41 ounces of gold OR
November 2015 silver price: ~$15.25/oz = 3,147 ounces of silver

The G/S ratio in November of 2015 would have been around 75:1, so if you chose to trade your 32 ounces of gold back for silver you would end up with only 2,400 ounces. A great return, but not as great as holding the cash in the interim.

Now of course if there is some hyperinflationary situation where you're stuck holding cash then you sure will be SOL.

 

[LooseChange]

Hey Avago.

Good analysis. For me anyway, the biggest risk with sitting on dollars is that they are so easy to spend. I like to keep the stack of physical precious metal in one form or the other. That way it doesn't look like a new leaf blower or new boat cushion or the like.

 

[Dannycoco]

So I caved in this morning. Sold $1362. face value halves and some nickels for$10,200. Since they were all CRH finds I think I did pretty good. Even if silver continues to rise I’m not going to worry about losing a little profit. I also sold a small bag of scrap gold and silver jewelry for $800. I’m happy!

 

[weighit]

GREAT JOB you did GOOD, I'm thinking the same thing, sell when i can make a decent profit.

So I caved in this morning. Sold $1362. face value halves and some nickels for$10,200. Since they were all CRH finds I think I did pretty good. Even if silver continues to rise I’m not going to worry about losing a little profit. I also sold a small bag of scrap gold and silver jewelry for $800. I’m happy!

 

[Zomotion]

So I caved in this morning. Sold $1362. face value halves and some nickels for$10,200. Since they were all CRH finds I think I did pretty good. Even if silver continues to rise I’m not going to worry about losing a little profit. I also sold a small bag of scrap gold and silver jewelry for $800. I’m happy!

Hey Dannycoco - what did you sell the scrap gold at? My LCS was offering about 70% for 14k scrap.... I haven't asked around, but thought it was low. Anyone have advice on this?

 

[fistfulladirt]

I’m up 100% on everything I bought last year. My target is $60/oz.

 

[Dannycoco]

Zomotion I’m not sure what price the gold was at. He said he would give me a good deal because of all the silver I brought in.