How long can you tread water?

[DizzyDigger]

We've got some serious weather coming in tonight and tomorrow, and the weather people
are telling us to expect some record flood level's on the rivers.

Now, that is bad enough as many people are going to lose their homes. Worse yet, as one of
those rivers is literally in my backyard.

Been here 23 years now, so we've seen a flood or two, but this is, apparently, something
special the weather gods made up for us. We used to call it the "Pineapple Express", as these
storms come at us right out of the Pacific via Hawaii and all points tropical. Now they call
it an "Atmospheric River", which weather people seem to like as it sounds more ominous.

Our house is situated on what they call "high bank", meaning we don't even have to have
flood insurance....and we don't. Our backyard has two terraces that slope down towards the river,
and the highest it ever was was measured (at the local gauge) was 42'. That had water flowing
over the lowest level in the yard, closest to the river. To reach the house it would have to have
been another 10' higher, or even more.

I took this pic in Oct. of 2015, and the river was at flood level, which is measured at the gauge
at 28'. I've marked a line where I'm guessing is about 47', as that's what they are predicting for
tomorrow night. Our home is up and to the right from the point the pic is taken.

Will probably lose power, so I've got my 7.0 kW generator all ready fueled up, and the cat carriers
lined up in case we've got to bail. Seriously, I don't expect that will be the case....but ya never know
what Ma Nature is gonna do.

 

[jeff of pa]

Good Luck ! I probably Don't Need to say This,
But Keep us Updated

Just a Pain in the Arse Here ! Next 2 Days

• Daytime: Snow, Begins midday around 11:00am, ends around 5:00pm, 1 to 3 inches expected, Higher amounts possible the more north and east, High near 35°F.
• Nighttime: Cloudy early, Clearing Overnight, Low around 25°F.
• Sunrise: 7:18 AM | Sunset: 4:37 PM

Thursday, December 11th, 2025​

Daytime: Clouds and Sun, a snow shower is possible, and a High near 28°F.​

• Nighttime: Cloudy with a low around 23°F.
• Sunrise: 7:19 AM | Sunset: 4:38 PM

​

 

[Jose The Goon]

God be with you & your family & neighbors. Hoping & praying the water level doesn't get high enough to reach your houses.
God bless.

 

[DizzyDigger]

The rain stopped this morning, but has come back tonight...with a vengeance.
Not much wind, just continuous heavy rain.

You can see in the graph that it briefly hit flood level yesterday, then dropped some
as the rain stopped Tues. am, but now is back on the rise..and will continue to rise
until it crests sometime tomorrow evening (they say).

Talking with my neighbors tonight about how we might save the landscaping he spent all
summer doing in his backyard. My backyard is wild and uncut (as required by code), but
his is more like a park..absolutely beautiful. Their home is also about 10' lower in elevation
than ours.

The USGS gauge for the Skagit River at Concrete.

Skagit River Near Concrete, WA - USGS Water Data for the Nation

Discover water data collected at monitoring location USGS-12194000, located in Skagit County, Washington and find additional nearby monitoring locations.

waterdata.usgs.gov

 

[tamrock]

I'm sure you know to be prepared there Dizzy. Hoping you get through it alright.

 

[ConceptualizedNetherlandr]

300 cubits long, 50 cubits wide, and 30 cubits high. Start building. name it the coon cutter

 

[DizzyDigger]

300 cubits long, 50 cubits wide, and 30 cubits high. Start building. name it the coon cutter

Love it...LOL Was just telling the wife that having a good attitude makes all the difference
in these situations. Can't stop the water rising, so we might as well make fun of it...

Still raining hard, and the river is rising with it. When you live in a valley with 4000' - 10,000'
mountains around you, all that rain just flows right down to the center of the valley, and that's
where the Skagit River sits.

River still rising, and the current flow is about 57,000 cu. ft. per second. If the river
does what they are forecasting, it will be flowing at well over 100,000 cu. ft/s.

 

[DizzyDigger]

Time for an update...

2231 local time.

Rain has not slowed down, but amazingly we still have power. River continuing
to rise, and is now about 7 ft. above flood stage. We are safe, and under no danger
from the current river levels, however many towns downriver of us are experiencing
some serious flooding.

The image (above) showed the flow rate at 56,800 cu. ft/s at roughly 0900 this morning,
and now, 13 hrs. later, it is flowing at 113,000 cu. ft./s,...double what it was just over 13 hrs.
ago.

Still rising, it's now about 7 ft. above flood stage, at roughly 35' on the gauge, and still in a near vertical
climb:

Wife went to bed, and now I'll be up all night to keep an eye on things.

 

[Treasure_Hunter]

Good luck sir.

I was camping in the Big Thompson Canyon Colorado the week before the flash flood hit the canyon killing 144 people in 1976. I though about what could have been for years after.

 

[ARC]

Good luck Dizzy.

 

[AU Seeker]

Good Luck, hoping for the best for ya'll!!

 

[DizzyDigger]

Thanks all for the good wishes...much appreciated.

Wife is still quite concerned, but I believe we may weather this OK. Water
is now flowing over the lower terrace of the back yard, but it'll have to rise
at least another 10' to be anywhere close to the house.

Current is now 141,000 cu. ft./s, and the level is at 40'. The rain has slacked
off for the time being, but there is still an awful lot of water flowing off the
mountains. The river will not crest for quite a while yet.

Almost 5am now, and hope I can get some pics after daylight..which won't be
until about 8am.

 

[GaRebel1861]

Praying for everyone's safety. Please don't wait until the last minute to leave if you need to. Keep us posted.

 

[Treasure_Hunter]

Evacuations ordered in parts of Washington amid threat of 'catastrophic' flooding

Officials in Washington have issued an evacuation order as an atmospheric river event has been slamming the Pacific Northwest.

abcnews.go.com

 

[DizzyDigger]

It seems the worst is now past us, as the river has crested, and has begun to
even drop a couple feet.

Once it was light enough I went down and took some pics and video of the
river. You can see the back side of our house at the end. We were quite safe,
as the river would have had to rise at least another 10 ft. before I had any
serious concerns. They said it would crest at 48', and actually crested at 42'.
That 6 ft. difference kept it off our middle terrace. My biggest concern was that
IF it got that high the flow could easily undermine the ground holding up the
house..and then the whole kit and caboodle would have slid down the hill.





Communities downriver of us got hit pretty hard, and there's a whole lot of mess
to be cleaned up.

 

[Terry Soloman]

Prayers answered!

 

[GaRebel1861]

Once the water goes down there should be artifacts that washed out. We had a major flood in SW Georgia back in 1994 and the number of relics found afterwards was crazy. One person I know picked up over 100 points in one day. Good luck and be safe.

 

[DizzyDigger]

Once the water goes down there should be artifacts that washed out. We had a major flood in SW Georgia back in 1994 and the number of relics found afterwards was crazy. One person I know picked up over 100 points in one day. Good luck and be safe.

Our property has an interesting history, in that the last glacier that flowed down
the Skagit Valley some 17,000 years ago actually stopped right where our beach is.
Geologists from one of the local colleges were absolutely thrilled about this, although
I've never found a single artifact.

I plan to be doing some close inspection of that river bank wall next summer, and will
most definitely be looking for anything man-made.

 

[Oregon Viking]

I hope the flooding.... at least for now.... is over and you are OK !!

 

[jeff of pa]

4 hours ago
Washington city Mount Vernon holds its breath as floodwaters reach top of levee