CLUES TO THE LOST DUTCMAN MINE

[sgtfda]

Gosh, yes. If we agree that that piece of picture rock was in Waltz's possession at the time of his demise, it could have come from: 1) a mine that Waltz worked himself; 2) a cache of ore Waltz came into possession of; 3) high-graded ore obtained earlier in Waltz's life.

In any case, the ore was mined out of the ground, and that mine's location will remain unknown until acceptably matching ore from a known source is located. Presently, there is no such evidence, other than hearsay, that the ore originated in the Superstitions.

I agree. Wonder if that crosses Clays mind when he gets it out and looks at it.

 

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[coazon de oro]

In my opinion, from all the respected Dutch Hunters, Mr. Clay Worst came closer to finding the mine than any one else. Of several LDM clues that are written in stone, he may be familiar with the one that shows the ore was not high-graded, nor came from a cache.

Homar

 

[cactusjumper]

In my opinion, from all the respected Dutch Hunters, Mr. Clay Worst came closer to finding the mine than any one else. Of several LDM clues that are written in stone, he may be familiar with the one that shows the ore was not high-graded, nor came from a cache.

Homar

Homar,

Are you saying you know where the LDM is?

Take care,

Joe

 

[roadrunner]

If the ore was from under the bed, and Holmes found it in the box under the bed, how does he know it came from the LDM suppose to be in the supes.
Just because it is under the bed means nothing.
And of course he searched the supes because he truly believed it came from the supes as it was under Waltz bed.
Did Waltz tell Holmes that all the ore under his bed came from the LDM in the supes? We dont have that answer.

And as Oro said, I don't care what piece of ground is called what, all I care about is I want to find some Goooooooold.
Silver if it is rich enough would work also.
Pieces of ore 80-90% silver would work for me.

here are 2 other incidents.
1932, Thomas Wiggins caused a mining gold rush when he found some nuggets, but the ore panned out in a few days. He came into Superior and his claim was within 6 miles of Superior. Guards had to be hired to keep the mini gold rush calm. Im trying to find a newspaper story on this.
Next came the Howlands, who actually found about 800 pounds of ore worth $40,000. Same here.

 

[Oroblanco]

Roadrunner, that is a good point, however we doh't have any evidence that the ore under Waltz's bed came from any other place. The people he talked to all were led to believe (by Waltz) that it came from his mine in the Superstitions. None were told that it came from California or the Bradshaws or from some cache of someone else's mine, and of course if it were stolen from another mine/cache, then that mine remains to be identified, and found for that matter.

Seems to me there is a lot of temporizing on the skeptics side, to try to dismiss the whole thing by reaching for all kinds of alternate explanations, when the old Occam's Razor solution would be that Waltz had a gold mine in the Superstition mountains as he indicated to his friends and was trailed into by others, from which his rich and pretty gold ore came. The simplest explanation IMHO.

Good luck and good hunting amigos, I hope you find the treasures that you seek.
Oroblanco

 

[roadrunner]

I just read chapter 3 in Holmes manuscript.
In the death bed statement,Waltz said he came from The Vulture, where he was working. Then he went to Picket Post to see if he wanted to stay there.

Then he left Picket Post to head to Ft Mcdowel. So he was heading Nw, towards Buzzards Roost,and Iron Mountain.
15 miles from Picket Post he made his first camp. I just drove from Superior, the perlite plant,across from Pinal site,,to the turn off to iron Mountain,across the Queen Creek. 9.5 miles.
15 miles would put him in Rogers Canyon area.
12.26 miles as the crow flies from Picket Post to the pitt mine.

He was attacked.Then said he did not move far. Then found the mexicans camp. Then the mine.
4 foot across, and 12 feet deep.

If this is the same Holmes, who said the matchbox came from the ore under his bed, and the supes, and we are to believe him, then that puts Waltz mine 15 miles or so from Picket Post, Not weavers, or any where around there.
If Holmes is telling the truth.
That is why no one has, or will find it around the western supes.

Waltz told Holmes he was working at the Vulture. Chapter 3. Holmes manuscript.
So he could have had ore from the Vulture. Or from Prescott for that matter. His other claims.
Just used them as we would travellers checks today.
For me,just to many empty spaces to fill.

 

[coazon de oro]

Homar,

Are you saying you know where the LDM is?

Take care,

Joe

Howdy Joe,

What you quoted me saying was what I was saying.

Homar

 

[Oroblanco]

Roadrunner wrote

For me,just to many empty spaces to fill.

To each his own - good luck to you amigo, I hope you find the treasures that you seek.
Oroblanco

 

[cactusjumper]

Howdy Joe,

What you quoted me saying was what I was saying.

Homar

Good morning Homar,

"Mr. Clay Worst came closer to finding the mine than any one else."

How would you, or anyone else, know that? Without knowing where the LDM is, it's a guess as to who came closest to the mine.

On the other hand, it was just your opinion.

Take care,

Joe

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

HIO ORO de Tayopa: just about like you trying to deny that it is actually in Tayopa


Hmm let's see we now have Tayopa, Naranjal, LAD, and aslo the LDM in Tayopa, so just relax gentlemen. Maybe if yer nice to me and convince ORO de Tayopa to send me the key for the Quipurs I'll let you prospect in return for 50% of your fiinds.

Don Jose de La Mancha

 

[Oroblanco]

HIO ORO de Tayopa: just about like you trying to deny that it is actually in Tayopa


Hmm let's see we now have Tayopa, Naranjal, LAD, and aslo the LDM in Tayopa, so just relax gentlemen. Maybe if yer nice to me and convince ORO de Tayopa to send me the key for the Quipurs I'll let you prospect in return for 50% of your fiinds.

Don Jose de La Mancha

Good lord compadre, I am going to ask El Tigre to check what is really in your "coffee" mug, starting to think it must be Irish coffee and not Colombian!

Your case of Tayopa Funnel Vision appears to be reaching the acute phase; you have now relocated or otherwise moved the Lost Adams, El Naranjal, and now the Lost Dutchman mine into Tayopa with the click of a mouse. What is next - the Lost Cabin mine is there too? Must be the whole of the rest of the western USA and northern Mexico is utterly barren of minerals, everything has drifted into the Tayopa barranca.

Oroblanco

PS - and my coffee won't flame if you put a match to it!

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

Well you are playing the Devils Advocate with Tayopa so why can't I do the same with the others, hmm? hmmmm? sides it sounds soo nice to have widely separated thingies conveniently in one small area - and they do fit in general.. Can you prove that they aren't?

I frankly didn't expect anyone to take me seriously, but was attempting to show how difficult, possibly even ridiculous to insist on the same thing for almost a century with no results, even with every possible combination of the ?? basic facts, so it must be some where else,

The references to a fort may be the Achilles heel of the search. Remember there is a rich hidden Gold mine with past production of bars hidden at Tayopa, with an orange grove, a Building etc. So to hide it, what would be more natural than to 'misdirect' would be hunters by confusing existing points or directions, of even distances to the spot.

Don Jose de La Mancha.

 

[Oroblanco]

Well you are playing the Devils Advocate with Tayopa so why can't I do the same with the others, hmm? hmmmm? sides it sounds soo nice to have widely separated thingies conveniently in one small area - and they do fit in general.. Can you prove that they aren't?

I frankly didn't expect anyone to take me seriously, but was attempting to show how difficult, possibly even ridiculous to insist on the same thing for almost a century with no results, even with every possible combination of the ?? basic facts, so it must be some where else,

The references to a fort may be the Achilles heel of the search. Remember there is a rich hidden Gold mine with past production of bars hidden at Tayopa, with an orange grove, a Building etc. So to hide it, what would be more natural than to 'misdirect' would be hunters by confusing existing points or directions, of even distances to the spot.

Don Jose de La Mancha.

Ah big difference was that I stated that I was playing Devils Advocate, which should indicate that I don't really agree with the arguments I was posting.

As to misdirection, obviously this is a possibility, yet for the lost Dutchman's mine, remember that he certainly gave every indication to his closest friends that it was located in the Superstitions, perhaps not within the Wilderness Area of course but certainly not far away either. Otherwise it makes no sense for him to try to tell them how to get there, attempted to take them, and also pointed at the place while saying it is located there. Trying to relocate the mine anywhere else is pure speculation with evidence against it from the start in the acts/statements of Waltz to his closest friends, along with the Weiser/Walker story.

Allthat said, I have no doubt that at least one point or clue has to be wrong, which may be a case of erroneous interpretation by the person listening, or passing along the info. That flaw won't move the mine to southern Sonora/Chihuahua border area however.
Oroblanco

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

oeo blanca de Tayopa: first my coffee, I need it. You may not actually believe it, but I agree with you 100%, Tayopa is Tayopa and the Spanish mine is just that. But I have gotten a few into thinking out of the "box" as they say.

Start by eliminating one clue at a time, or simply modifying it Eventually you should have success. Having had to do that with my mine, I know just how hard it is to do, but it may be necessary. The prize is worth it.

Also remember, you posted " you have to go up, then down to get to my mine" which roughly simply indicates that it is at the bottom of the upper cliff of double cliff system. Yer Welcome, however if not clear, ask me..

Don Jose de La Mancha ( el unrepentant one)

 

[Springfield]

... All that said, I have no doubt that at least one point or clue has to be wrong, which may be a case of erroneous interpretation by the person listening, or passing along the info. That flaw won't move the mine to southern Sonora/Chihuahua border area however.
Oroblanco

Lost Mine Chance of Factual Data Formula
For each independent clue considered in the challenge, assume 50% chance of factual error per degree of separation from factual source. Results may vary depending on seeker's level of objectiveness. [© 2013, Justin Case, all rights reserved]

The conundrum
The fewer the number of clues, the better chance they are cumulatively accurate, but fewer clues reduce the chances of success. A greater number of clues increases success, but decreases their cumulative reliability.

Calculation Example
Assume 3 clues, 3 degrees of separation. For example, the LDM Legend. Waltz (1st degree) tells Dick Holmes (2nd degree) and info is published (3rd degree): (0.50)(0.50)(0.50) x (0.50)(0.50)(0.50) x (0.50)(0.50)(0.50) = 0.2% chance of totally reliable information.

 

[Oroblanco]

Springfield wrote

Lost Mine Chance of Factual Data Formula
For each independent clue considered in the challenge, assume 50% chance of factual error per degree of separation from factual source. Results may vary depending on seeker's level of objectiveness. [© 2013, Justin Case, all rights reserved]

The conundrum
The fewer the number of clues, the better chance they are cumulatively accurate, but fewer clues reduce the chances of success. A greater number of clues increases success, but decreases their cumulative reliability.

Calculation Example
Assume 3 clues, 3 degrees of separation. For example, the LDM Legend. Waltz (1st degree) tells Dick Holmes (2nd degree) and info is published (3rd degree): (0.50)(0.50)(0.50) x (0.50)(0.50)(0.50) x (0.50)(0.50)(0.50) = 0.2% chance of totally reliable information.

Calculating odds can be helpful, if you are a spreadsheet type of person, however even at that, it is also misleading.

The example given, three clues, and a 50-50 chance, indeed gives you the 0.2% chance or 1 in 500 that all three clues are correct.

The same calculation, to arrive at whether two of the three clues are correct, is far different - for you actually have two chances (3 clues) to end up with two correct - or
(0.50)(0.50) x (0.50)(0.50) x (0.50)(0.50) x 2 (possible matches)= 12.5% that two are correct

The odds of one of the three being correct are even better, for while the original "rules" are in place reducing the odds for a single clue to be correct means 12.5% yet you get three tries, or 37.5%

This may sound like LONG odds for anyone to go out looking for any lost mine, however consider this.

The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000. <source, Natl Geographic>

Your chance of winning the lottery on a single ticket is one in 175 million. <found several such estimates in a quick search on google>

Also, there are at least 100 different clues to the LDM (obviously, many do not apply of course) and you can have more than one "shot" at finding it by looking more often. You can also filter out some false information by research. Even further, it is assumption that the odds of the info being correct from a source is 50%. A person may be a known liar, or known to get things wrong, or known to be truthful etc. Reiney for example, was accused by his relatives of having not paid attention well enough. They seem to have had the impression that he had gotten something very wrong, so we ought to keep that in mind when considering anything from that source.

Roadrunner - the Holmes manuscript has issues; for one, the author has allegedly disowned having written it, though others say they saw him writing it. Right in the text there are known erroneous info, such as Waltz not having filed a claim because he was not a citizen, when it is known that he had won his citizenship before ever arriving in Arizona. So keep that in mind when weighing out the Lost Dutchman legend as perceived by the Holmes manuscript.

Don Jose de la Mancha el Tropical Tramp wrote

oeo blanca de Tayopa: first my coffee, I need it. You may not actually believe it, but I agree with you 100%, Tayopa is Tayopa and the Spanish mine is just that. But I have gotten a few into thinking out of the "box" as they say.

Start by eliminating one clue at a time, or simply modifying it Eventually you should have success. Having had to do that with my mine, I know just how hard it is to do, but it may be necessary. The prize is worth it.

Also remember, you posted " you have to go up, then down to get to my mine" which roughly simply indicates that it is at the bottom of the upper cliff of double cliff system. Yer Welcome, however if not clear, ask me..

Don Jose de La Mancha ( el unrepentant one)

Have to disagree with your last statement there amigo - it need not be a cliff system to fit such a vague discription - a simple ledge/ridge on a slope, that you would have to get up and over to get to the mine will also fit, as is the case for the Fortuna. You must go up and over that ridge, then down a bit, to reach the mine; it need not be a series of cliffs, which would make for difficult access by mules.

Good luck and good hunting amigos - have to sign off but will try to pop in later and catch up.
Oroblanco

 

[Springfield]

...The same calculation, to arrive at whether two of the three clues are correct, is far different - for you actually have two chances (3 clues) to end up with two correct ...

The odds of one of the three being correct are even better...

Ah, yes, but you're ignoring the big rub. If we assume that stringing together a series of clues is necessary in order to achieve success - say three of them - then all three need to be correct. This is why reliability of information is so crucial. So much of the LDM lore must be accepted on faith alone, and this absolutely murders your odds of success.

 

[chlsbrns]

Go NW from Phoenix to the Vulture Mine where the lost dutchman stole, robbed & killed to get his gold. That's a fact!

Or should I say that it is ONE of the mines where he stole gold with more gold coming from robbery and murder?


You should have taken my offer when I offered to provide proof!

 

[roadrunner]

Oro, Yes I saw that and also he said that Waltz buried and concealed his mine, then went back and grabbed more ore. Huh,kinda backwards.
That's the problem, nothing is correct or either contradicts each other.
Writers made things up to sell there book,or just make more pages for the book and make it more interesting.
What book do you consider to be the best about the deathbed confession, or about the clues?

 

[Springfield]

... You should have taken my offer when I offered to provide proof!

Oh,well ... DLTDHYITAOTWO