How many coins will I find?

[aarthrj3811]

OK now ....I am a Dowser..I am going to take one of those Scentific Double-Blind Test. There will be one coin placed under one of 10 cups. I will make my run and be scored. I will make a total of 10 runs. How many coins will I find?. Now you have to remember that all Dowsing is the same as guessing.The only question here is HOW MANY COINS WILL I FIND?

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

=HOW MANY COINS WILL I FIND?
*************************
7 my friend

Tropical Tramp

 

[diggummup]

ONE

 

[Carl-NC]

Odds of finding 1 is 38.7%.
Odds of finding 0 is 34.9%.
Odds of finding 2 is 19.4%.
Odds of finding 3 is 5.7%.
Odds of finding 4 is 1.1%.
Odds of finding 5 is 0.15%.

So, you have a 98.7% chance of finding between 0 and 3 coins.

This assumes (a) that dowsing is equivalent to guessing and (b) the test is well-executed.

- Carl

 

[musstag]

10 out of 10... IF you take at least one hour between sessions to let the 'footprints' of the previous sessions placement 'burnoff'.

 

[xupz]

10 out of 10... IF you take at least one hour between sessions to let the 'footprints' of the previous sessions placement 'burnoff'.

Lets look at the probability of 10 correct.

Each trial has a 10% probability of success (.10). For Art to hit 10 out 10 in a row is .10^10 (.10*.10*.10*.10*.10*.10*.10*.10*.10*.10) = .0000000001 or .00000001%

odds = probability / (1-probability)
odds = .0000000001 / (1-.0000000001)
odds = .0000000001 / .9999999999
odds = 1:9,999,999,999

1 to 9 BILLION 999 MILLION 999 THOUSAND 999

If you'd like to calculate other probabilites simply use the binomial distribution here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

So if you can dowse 10 out of 10 then there wouldn't be a doubt left in hell that you could dowse. Unfortunately the powerball lottery has odds of 146,107,962.00 which means you would have a 68.44 better odds of winning the powerball than you would be trying to dowse 10 out of 10.

But, by all means "take at least one hour between sessions to let the 'footprints' of the previous sessions placement 'burnoff'." I'm sure that'll really help you BAHAHHAHAA.

 

[aarthrj3811]

Now you have to remember that all Dowsing is the same as guessing.The only question here is HOW MANY COINS WILL I FIND?
Hey xupz....So the Question is to hard for you?

 

[xupz]

Now you have to remember that all Dowsing is the same as guessing.The only question here is HOW MANY COINS WILL I FIND?
Hey xupz....So the Question is to hard for you?

Art it's already been answered, you sum the probabilities from the binomial distribution just as Carl has already shown. Here I'll break it down for you even more because you obviously have some kind of patronizing manner as if you think this question is too hard to figure out (when in reality I first learned all the basic discrete probability distributions in my VERY FIRST INTRO PROB STATS CLASS). If you're looking for a number, if you ran this test an infinite number of times it will average out 1 correct guess. That is the expected number of coins on average you'll guess correctly. See my work below to PROVE it.

Now since you're such the math wizard, I'll break it down for you using the binomial distribution:

Y~Binomial (n, p) where by definition of the binomial distribution you have 4 conditions:

1) n fixed trials
2) each trial is success or failure
3) probability of success is fixed (in this case .10)
4) trials are independent (which they are)

The equation is:

P(y) = (n C y)*p^y*(1-p)^(n-y) where

n C y is choose
y = # of successes (0->10)
p = probability of success (.10)
n = number of trials (10)

The expected value of you guessing correctly is mu = np = 10*.10 = 1.

Now let's do some actual plugging and chugging:


P(y=0) = (10 C 0)*(.10)^0*(1-.10)^(10-0) = 1*1*(.90)^10 = .34867 or 34.867%

This is the probability that you guess EXACTLY ZERO correct.


P(y=1) = (10 C 1)*(.10)^1*(1-.10)^(10-1) = 10*(.10)*(.90)^9 = .38742 or 38.742%

This is the probability you guess EXACTLY ONE correct.

etc for y= 0 to 10

Now if asked you what's the probability that you guess at least 1 correctly then it's basically summing all the probabilities from 1->10 and removing zero. Since we already know the probability of you guessing zero correctly, all we have to do is subtract the probability of zero correct guess from 1 (the sum of all probabilities for all guesses) and you get 1- .34867 = .65133 or 65.133% probability of guessing AT LEAST 1 correctly.

Now Art, is this too hard for you to understand?

 

[xupz]

Art will find all the coins. BUT, sticking to the Dowser's Code, Art will not flip the cup over to see if the coin is actually there

That or claim a roach fart in Mongolia threw off his signal lines.

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

xupz That or claim a roach fart in Mongolia threw off his signal lines.
**************

HI Chuck, a magnificent display of a superior vocabulary ----I guess?

Tropical Tramp

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

HI B & B Judy, relax gal, Xu has already posted a statement that to enter accurately the possible variables influencing the test is almost impossible so just ignore them and treat a human as a strictly mechanical device.

Speaking of statistics Chuck, what was I thinking of at 03:00.00 am local sidereal time?

p.s. You are completely correct Judy, In my psychlogy class it was given a crude term of "compulsive subconscious compensation. It also is allied to over reacting to an imagined slight to an artificially elevated ego.

Tropical Tramp

 

[xupz]

HI B & B Judy, relax gal, Xu has already posted a statement that to enter accurately the possible variables influencing the test is almost impossible so just ignore them and treat a human as a strictly mechanical device.

Speaking of statistics Chuck, what was I thinking of at 03:00.00 am local sidereal time?

p.s. You are completely correct Judy, In my psychlogy class it was given a crude term of "compulsive subconscious compensation. It also is allied to over reacting to an imagined slight to an artificially elevated ego.

Tropical Tramp

Well JOSEPH, I clearly explained all Art needs to know in order to come up with his calculations. He tried to condescend as if the question (of being able to plug in mu=np) was too difficult, so I simply dropped a logic bomb on him that makes Ivy Mike look like a snap & pop. His question is answered and then some. It comes down him being able to "guess" 10 correct in a row is 1 in 10 billion.

 

[aarthrj3811]

Hey JudyH...I did a study at a street fair and a high school. 100 people were tested. xupz used his math and was right in this case. I just wanted a number. I have saw satistics that are wrong over and over. So I don't trust them. After watching a demonstration in Nevada and seeing how the skeptics treated a 84 year old man I have no respect for them. SWR....The Dowsing rods can be made to not work as was proved at this event. Call it an excuse if you want to, but it is a fact...Art

 

[aarthrj3811]

Hey xupz....Where do you get the number 10 out of 10? According to your post # 7 if I find 2 of the coins I have beat the chances of random guessing. Every coin I find after that is a free bee...Art

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

HI Beale, Not too long ago I sent an aerial photograph of my Tayopa mines to a friend's acquaintance to dowse mostly as a joke on my part,. I was flabbergasted, he located over 80% of the anomalies etc that I had already located by conventional geophysical methods?

Later he came to Mexico where I had chance to work with him. I took him to an area where I knew metal was buried, he very casually proceeded to locate all of them. When I tried to test him on the possibility of treasure hunting, he said "Hey, I am not here to be tested, I am here to find mining anomalies, not treasures, frankly I am not very good on treasures".

Still after he left, he went to Nogales where he dowsed an area then bought it since he said that there was a treasure buried there. He dug and found 6 25 kilo bars of Ag but the assay results only showed .600 fine. Yes, I later saw the assay report and date.

In any event he paid for the property with them.

Before anyone asks, no I will not post the aerial photos of Tayopa that he dowsed for obvious reasons, , but yes on those outside of my claims.

Tropical Tramp

 

[xupz]

Hey xupz....Where do you get the number 10 out of 10? According to your post # 7 if I find 2 of the coins I have beat the chances of random guessing. Every coin I find after that is a free bee...Art

Sorry Art you have not beat the chances for guessing at random, you have beaten the expected AVERAGE in one single instance. The reason is because you have to perform SIGNIFICANTLY better than random which isn't just saying "oh well I beat 1 so it's better". I'm not going to get into this as it would be a waste of time
trying to explain the concept or math to you.

If you claim y=2 then

P(y=2) = (10 C 2)*(.10)^2*(1-.10)^(10-2) = 45*.01*(.90)^8 = .19371 or 19.371%

Here's a chart (quick job in excel) n=10, p=.10:


y
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10


P(y) Exact
34.8678440100%
38.7420489000%
19.3710244500%
5.7395628000%
1.1160261000%
0.1488034800%
0.0137781000%
0.0008748000%
0.0000364500%
0.0000009000%
0.0000000100%


summation
34.8678440100%
73.6098929100%
92.9809173600%
98.7204801600%
99.8365062600%
99.9853097400%
99.9990878400%
99.9999626400%
99.9999990900%
99.9999999900%
100.0000000000%


odds
0.535339933
0.632441148
0.240248922
0.060890475
0.011286218
0.001490252
0.0001378
8.74808E-06
3.645E-07
9E-09
1E-10


1/odds
1.867971991
1.581174792
4.162349583
16.42292984
88.6036392
671.027294
7256.894775
114310.8427
2743483.225
111111110.1
9999999999


So as you can see the odds of guessing 2 correct 1:4.1623 so saying you managed to guess 2 correctly isn't difficult as we expect it to occur 19.37% of the time or 19 times out of a 100. If you can dowse say 5, now we're talking about something as it would occur ~ 1 time out of a 1000.

And 10 out of 10 is if you guess all 10 times correctly, or 100% success according to your other post comparing two people getting out of a car and the dowser has a 100% chance of success. If the probability* is 1 in 10 billion at random with 10 cups, the odds of them randomly walking out into a field are ASTRONOMICAL. You made the claim, not I.

 

[hollowpointred]

Hey xupz....Where do you get the number 10 out of 10? According to your post # 7 if I find 2 of the coins I have beat the chances of random guessing. Every coin I find after that is a free bee...Art

ill find 10 out of 10 with my detetcor.

 

[xupz]

Hey xupz....Where do you get the number 10 out of 10? According to your post # 7 if I find 2 of the coins I have beat the chances of random guessing. Every coin I find after that is a free bee...Art

ill find 10 out of 10 with my detetcor.

Haha I have no doubt anyone would

 

[aarthrj3811]

Hey SWR....All I want is an honest answer....Out of thirty five answers I have recieve 1 !/2 honest answers. I did my home work and I know the anwer and we don't need the subject changed. If they want to talk about something else they can start another thread....Art

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

[hollowpointred
ill find 10 out of 10 with my detetcor.
***************
HI my friend PROVE IT!!! heheh.

Tropical Tramp